Random Poker Thoughts

Heading into last Sunday, there was a consensus that the New York Giants were the best team in the NFL with an undefeated record, a productive offense and the league’s top ranked defense. The New Orleans Saints made a compelling case to the contrary, however, as they dismantled the Giants to win 48-27 behind yet another MVP-like performance from quarterback Drew Brees. Brees threw for 369 yards and four touchdowns with no interceptions as New Orleans kept their record perfect on the season at 5-0. The Giants dropped to 5-1 with the defeat.

There’s not much ‘middle ground’ when it comes to the desirability of betting NFL preseason games. The overly conservative handicappers suggest that its a poor wagering opportunity, while the ‘boiler room’ sports touts try to suggest that short of a fixed game there’s no more sure thing than preseason football. There’s a degree of truth in both views. Handicapping preseason NFL football is a unique discipline unto itself, but with knowledge and caution it can be a profitable endeavor.

Sports book futures bets are an increasing popular and potentially profitable way to wager on the outcome of a full season. There’s a few common mistakes that novice players make that can be easily avoided by paying attention to the following:

The Mapes Hotel in Reno, Nevada met its demise on Superbowl Sunday of 2000 when 75 pounds of explosives packed inside the structure’s support columns brought it to the ground. The controlled demolition came despite years of effort by a number of groups within the community to preserve the building with lawsuits, redevelopment proposals, and grass roots lobbying efforts. The National Turst for Historic Preservation even took up the cause, challenging the destruction in a lawsuit that eventually reached the Nevada Supreme Court.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have been playing the Cleveland Browns for longer than any other team in the National Football League, dating back to 1950. And while it hasn’t been quite that long since the Cleveland Browns won a game against the Steelers it may be starting to feel like it. On Sunday, Pittsburgh won for the twelfth straight time dating back to 2003 as they topped Cleveland by a final score of 27-13. The defending Superbowl champions improved to 4-2 while the Browns fell to 1-5.

Sports betting futures plays are often dismissed by more serious handicappers as poor values by definition. They’re most frequently associated with rank amateurs looking for a big payoff with little risk. For example, a player might be entranced with a +10000 payoff should St. George, Utah be awarded the 2020 Summer Olympic games. While that would definitely be a nice payday, the problem is that the “true odds” of St. George, Utah hosting the Olympics is well in excess of a million to one. That means that even the huge ‘plus number’ offered represents an underlay situation and a poor wagering value.