Random Poker Thoughts

There is lots of discussion within the media lately regarding possibly creating changes for the overtime rules in NFL games. In one group you will find people who really feel there is no crisis observing teams slug it out against each other for 60 minutes, simply to have what ought to function as most exciting part with the game get determined on a singular possession in which a team just has to maneuver the ball 30-40 yards which sets up a perfect winning Field Goal.

Roger Goodell, the current NFL commissioner believes that if you can’t win a game within the first sixty minutes, then you should have nothing to say about how the game gets decided after the hour, thus no sports handicapping problems. This thought is worthless in my opinion.

What is disturbing is what a change in the rules could mean for sports wagering and sports handicapping. The NFL clearly owes some of it’s huge popularity to the simple fact that it is the most gambled on sports game in the USA. If they chose an over time plan like the college version, what would that to – either positive or negative – to the lines that are put on national football league games?

If they do go ahead with the changes, think about this: say you place a bet on a game with a posted final of forty-two. However, after the regular game ends the score is tied up at 14. Because of this, your wager for the match not coming in under the posted final looks really good, yes? Ok, then let’s assume the OT rules were more like it is in college when both sides get the football no matter what.

If both teams get a touch down in over time, you could have as many as 44 points. You could get another overtime situation with two field goals, then another one with a field goal to win the entire time. Now you just went from having excellent odds of the match ending on the total of thirty-one with the typical OT field goal to determine the outcome. But in this new situation, you now have a game where the total went up as high as 50+ all in a time period that is meant to be what you use when you have no time left on the regulation clock.

Therefore, I want to go on record saying two things. The first, the OT system is definitely broken. When you have the coin flip be more important than any of the players on the field, that’s a problem. And the winner of the coin flip in NFL overtimes wins an amazing 60% of the time. In fact, more than 30% of the time the team the loses the flip never even sees the ball! And no you don’t have to go to the college system either. You could do that for 1 possession each: if both teams score the same amount in that exchange THEN you go to sudden death.

When it comes to sports handicapping, I may allow it to be similar to the rules for soccer when it comes to gambling. In soccer matches, when there is a strong chance of OT or penalty kicks, the line doesn’t even consider additional frames. This is why they use a “draw line”. So when the game is over, and ends with a tie after ninety minutes, the two teams might continue to play to determine a winner, but for betting reasons alone the game is done – pretty interesting, huh?

My thoughts are that the national football league should have the same rules as soccer, but especially when or if the over time rules are modified. If you allow the game to continue on for betting reasons after the hour is up there will be no bloated scores that mock betting lines. Thus the rules should be changed to accentuate the players; not the coin flip, I feel that the betting rules also have to change.

Rich Allen is an expert in Sports Handicapping. His Sports Betting Professor Systems have sold over 250,000 units and cover all major sports. Download a FREE copy of The Sports Betting Insider’s Guide at: http://richallensports.com/sports-handicapping

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